Was India saved by staying below the critical travel threshold and was lockdown and travel restriction the most important public health intervention?

Sunil Kumar Raina MD FIAPSM, Dr RP Government Medical College, Tanda (HP)
Yaneer Bar-Yam, New England Complex Systems Institute, Cambridge, MA USA
(Dated: February 25, 2021)

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Abstract

Indian response to the pandemic has been described from “India is in denial about the covid-19 crisis” or “India staring at corona virus disaster”, to “The mystery of India’s plummeting covid-19 cases”. These responses have been far from being backed scientifically and appear ignorant of India’s capabilities of leveraging its strengths to mitigate the impact of the pandemic. Backed by a swift Government action of restricting/regulating movement to increasing public health capacity to meet the increasing demands of the pandemic, India seems to have done enough to emerge successful. India is doing well, if not guaranteed for the future, but at least for now. Here we review these measures and point to their consistency with analysis of the role of intercommunity transmission and within community action to stop localized outbreaks. In particular, severe restrictions on travel, stopping gatherings, targeted localized lockdowns, school closures, effective public communication, improvements in case identification, rapid ramping of industrial production of masks and other personal protective equipment (PPE) and testing capacity, as well as intensive measures in high density areas of urban deprivation have placed India in a regime of declining cases and outbreak control. It is time to recognize the scientific basis of India’s success and give it its due. With the number of new cases in India leveling recently, the urgency is great to complete the elimination process so that a new surge does not occur.