Combining PCR and CT testing for COVID
Chen Shen* , Ron Mark MD DABR† , Nolan J. Kagetsu MD DABR‡ , Anton S. Becker MD PhD, Yaneer Bar-Yam*
*New England Complex Systems Institute,
†Mark Medical Care PLLC,
‡Mt. Sinai Hospital
May 26, 2020
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Abstract
We analyze the effect of using a screening CT-scan for evaluation of potential COVID-19 infections in order to isolate and perform contact tracing based upon a viral pneumonia diagnosis. RT-PCR is then used for continued isolation based upon a COVID diagnosis. Both the low false negative rates and rapid results of CT-scans lead to dramatically reduced transmission. The reduction in cases after 60 days with widespread use of CT-scan screening compared to PCR by itself is as high as 50×, and the reduction of effective reproduction rate R(t) is 0.20. Our results imply that much more rapid extinction of COVID is possible by combining social distancing with CT-scans and contact tracing.