Delta Variant Dominance in the U.S.

By Joaquín Beltrán

Original article posted on on Joaquín Beltrán’s Medium page:
https://joaquinlife.medium.com

A big-picture look at the Delta variant and what we can learn from early data to prevent another wave.

Image source: outreak.info

The Big Picture

The week of June 14th, data from genomic sequencing suggests that the Delta variant (B.1.617.2 first identified in India) is roughly doubling every week and we have reached the time period when it is estimated to become the dominant strain in the United States. While it is a Variant of Concern (VOC) that fits all three criteria of transmissibility, severity, and immune escape, there is good news that fully vaccinated individuals retain high levels of immune protection although slightly lower protection when compared to previous strains of the virus. Additionally, cases in the UK show greatly diminished protection for those partially vaccinated and high levels of cases and hospitalizations for those who are unvaccinated. While there is optimism in light of record low case numbers not seen since March 2020 in the United States, fully vaccinated rates vary greatly across the country, with some counties as low as 10% indicating that many communities will be vulnerable to outbreaks. Recent trends show slowing vaccination rates as the country experiences challenges of access, trust, and misinformation. These challenges in combination with mass reopenings suggest that we will follow a similar path to the UK of increased cases in the coming weeks and should quickly adjust our strategy to suppress cases through increased communication, vaccination initiatives, and protection protocols.

Caveats: The prevalence numbers are only estimates due to a very small percentage of COVID tests being sequenced across the country and lag in reporting data. Additionally, studies on severity cited in this article are early and in large part preliminary and more studies are ongoing to provide greater details on transmissibility, immune escape, and severity…

The rest of this blog may be found on Joaquín Beltrán’s Medium page:
https://joaquinlife.medium.com