Some are winning - some are not

which countries do best in beating covid-19?

 

Notice: New coronavirus variants first observed in the UK, South Africa, or Brazil have begun to spread throughout the world. These particular variants are alarming because they are more transmissible (and may also be more deadly).

Click here for global maps of variant spread, from the Covid Variant Tracking Project.

 

Countries beating Covid-19

Plots show normalized daily new cases of COVID-19 vs time, with a 7-day average.

”Recent new/day” is a measure of new cases per day, averaged over the last week.

Data source: JHU
Alternative sources are used for Kosovo, New Zealand, and Thailand.

For more information about government measures visit acaps.org.

See our FAQ for more details.

 
JanJanJanAfghanistanTotal Cases: 209,451Recent New/Day: 13JanJanJanAlbaniaTotal Cases: 334,457Recent New/Day: 7JanJanJanAlgeriaTotal Cases: 271,496Recent New/Day: 4JanJanJanAndorraTotal Cases: 47,890Recent New/Day: 2JanJanJanAntarcticaTotal Cases: 11Recent New/Day: 0JanJanJanBahamasTotal Cases: 37,491Recent New/Day: 0JanJanJanBangladeshTotal Cases: 2,037,871Recent New/Day: 6JanJanJanBelarusTotal Cases: 994,037Recent New/Day: 0JanJanJanBelizeTotal Cases: 70,757Recent New/Day: 0JanJanJanBhutanTotal Cases: 62,627Recent New/Day: 1JanJanJanBosniaTotal Cases: 401,729Recent New/Day: 13JanJanJanBurkina FasoTotal Cases: 22,056Recent New/Day: 0JanJanJanBurmaTotal Cases: 633,950Recent New/Day: 2JanJanJanCambodiaTotal Cases: 138,719Recent New/Day: 0JanJanJanCameroonTotal Cases: 124,392Recent New/Day: 0JanJanJanChinaTotal Cases: 4,903,524Recent New/Day: 0JanJanJanCubaTotal Cases: 1,112,643Recent New/Day: 4JanJanJanDjiboutiTotal Cases: 15,690Recent New/Day: 0JanJanJanDominicaTotal Cases: 15,760Recent New/Day: 0JanJanJanDominican RepublicTotal Cases: 660,790Recent New/Day: 12JanJanJanEcuadorTotal Cases: 1,057,121Recent New/Day: 0JanJanJanEgyptTotal Cases: 515,759Recent New/Day: 8JanJanJanEl SalvadorTotal Cases: 201,785Recent New/Day: 0JanJanJanEthiopiaTotal Cases: 500,116Recent New/Day: 14JanJanJanFijiTotal Cases: 68,898Recent New/Day: 0JanJanJanGreeceTotal Cases: 5,548,487Recent New/Day: 0JanJanJanHaitiTotal Cases: 34,202Recent New/Day: 8JanJanJanHoly SeeTotal Cases: 29Recent New/Day: 0JanJanJanHondurasTotal Cases: 472,250Recent New/Day: 19JanJanJanIcelandTotal Cases: 209,137Recent New/Day: 6JanJanJanIraqTotal Cases: 2,465,545Recent New/Day: 0JanJanJanJordanTotal Cases: 1,746,997Recent New/Day: 0JanJanJanKazakhstanTotal Cases: 1,498,668Recent New/Day: 0JanJanJanKenyaTotal Cases: 342,937Recent New/Day: 2JanJanJanKiribatiTotal Cases: 5,014Recent New/Day: 0JanJanJanKorea, NorthTotal Cases: 1Recent New/Day: 0JanJanJanKyrgyzstanTotal Cases: 206,708Recent New/Day: 5JanJanJanLaosTotal Cases: 218,023Recent New/Day: 0JanJanJanLiechtensteinTotal Cases: 21,432Recent New/Day: 1JanJanJanMaliTotal Cases: 33,062Recent New/Day: 2JanJanJanMaltaTotal Cases: 117,610Recent New/Day: 19JanJanJanMarshall IslandsTotal Cases: 15,649Recent New/Day: 4JanJanJanMicronesiaTotal Cases: 23,948Recent New/Day: 0JanJanJanMonacoTotal Cases: 16,121Recent New/Day: 0JanJanJanMongoliaTotal Cases: 1,007,900Recent New/Day: 0JanJanJanMoroccoTotal Cases: 1,272,490Recent New/Day: 2JanJanJanNauruTotal Cases: 5,247Recent New/Day: 0JanJanJanNepalTotal Cases: 1,001,154Recent New/Day: 0JanJanJanNigerTotal Cases: 9,508Recent New/Day: 0JanJanJanNigeriaTotal Cases: 266,598Recent New/Day: 0JanJanJanNorth MacedoniaTotal Cases: 346,852Recent New/Day: 0JanJanJanOmanTotal Cases: 399,449Recent New/Day: 0JanJanJanPalauTotal Cases: 5,991Recent New/Day: 0JanJanJanParaguayTotal Cases: 808,401Recent New/Day: 10JanJanJanSaint Kitts and NevisTotal Cases: 6,597Recent New/Day: 0JanJanJanSamoaTotal Cases: 16,607Recent New/Day: 0JanJanJanSan MarinoTotal Cases: 23,616Recent New/Day: 4JanJanJanSenegalTotal Cases: 88,926Recent New/Day: 0JanJanJanSolomon IslandsTotal Cases: 24,575Recent New/Day: 0JanJanJanSomaliaTotal Cases: 27,324Recent New/Day: 0JanJanJanSri LankaTotal Cases: 672,039Recent New/Day: 1JanJanJanSummer Olympics 2020Total Cases: 865Recent New/Day: 0JanJanJanTaiwanTotal Cases: 9,970,937Recent New/Day: 0JanJanJanTimor-LesteTotal Cases: 23,419Recent New/Day: 0JanJanJanTongaTotal Cases: 16,810Recent New/Day: 0JanJanJanTurkeyTotal Cases: 17,042,722Recent New/Day: 0JanJanJanTuvaluTotal Cases: 2,805Recent New/Day: 0JanJanJanUruguayTotal Cases: 1,034,303Recent New/Day: 0JanJanJanVanuatuTotal Cases: 12,014Recent New/Day: 0JanJanJanVietnamTotal Cases: 11,526,994Recent New/Day: 8JanJanJanWinter Olympics 2022Total Cases: 535Recent New/Day: 0
 

Countries that are nearly there

 
JanJanJanArgentinaTotal Cases: 10,044,957Recent New/Day: 118JanJanJanArmeniaTotal Cases: 447,308Recent New/Day: 69JanJanJanAustraliaTotal Cases: 11,399,460Recent New/Day: 2,079JanJanJanAustriaTotal Cases: 5,961,143Recent New/Day: 4,999JanJanJanAzerbaijanTotal Cases: 828,825Recent New/Day: 28JanJanJanBahrainTotal Cases: 710,693Recent New/Day: 376JanJanJanBarbadosTotal Cases: 106,798Recent New/Day: 21JanJanJanBelgiumTotal Cases: 4,739,365Recent New/Day: 1,652JanJanJanBoliviaTotal Cases: 1,194,277Recent New/Day: 122JanJanJanBrazilTotal Cases: 37,076,053Recent New/Day: 2,535JanJanJanBruneiTotal Cases: 279,661Recent New/Day: 137JanJanJanBulgariaTotal Cases: 1,297,523Recent New/Day: 87JanJanJanCanadaTotal Cases: 4,617,095Recent New/Day: 1,234JanJanJanChileTotal Cases: 5,192,286Recent New/Day: 2,885JanJanJanColombiaTotal Cases: 6,359,093Recent New/Day: 123JanJanJanCosta RicaTotal Cases: 1,209,725Recent New/Day: 794JanJanJanCroatiaTotal Cases: 1,269,326Recent New/Day: 47JanJanJanCyprusTotal Cases: 650,685Recent New/Day: 227JanJanJanCzechiaTotal Cases: 4,618,256Recent New/Day: 895JanJanJanDenmarkTotal Cases: 3,451,036Recent New/Day: 116JanJanJanEstoniaTotal Cases: 615,433Recent New/Day: 43JanJanJanFinlandTotal Cases: 1,463,644Recent New/Day: 95JanJanJanFranceTotal Cases: 39,866,718Recent New/Day: 4,403JanJanJanGeorgiaTotal Cases: 1,827,537Recent New/Day: 277JanJanJanGermanyTotal Cases: 38,249,060Recent New/Day: 6,641JanJanJanGuatemalaTotal Cases: 1,238,247Recent New/Day: 165JanJanJanHungaryTotal Cases: 2,196,804Recent New/Day: 125JanJanJanIndiaTotal Cases: 44,690,738Recent New/Day: 335JanJanJanIndonesiaTotal Cases: 6,738,225Recent New/Day: 235JanJanJanIranTotal Cases: 7,572,311Recent New/Day: 435JanJanJanIsraelTotal Cases: 4,803,824Recent New/Day: 490JanJanJanItalyTotal Cases: 25,603,510Recent New/Day: 3,808JanJanJanJamaicaTotal Cases: 154,416Recent New/Day: 31JanJanJanJapanTotal Cases: 33,320,438Recent New/Day: 9,678JanJanJanSouth KoreaTotal Cases: 30,615,522Recent New/Day: 10,220JanJanJanKosovoTotal Cases: 273,312Recent New/Day: 24JanJanJanKuwaitTotal Cases: 663,860Recent New/Day: 57JanJanJanLatviaTotal Cases: 976,255Recent New/Day: 29JanJanJanLebanonTotal Cases: 1,232,828Recent New/Day: 109JanJanJanLithuaniaTotal Cases: 1,307,448Recent New/Day: 272JanJanJanLuxembourgTotal Cases: 317,367Recent New/Day: 109JanJanJanMalaysiaTotal Cases: 5,044,718Recent New/Day: 209JanJanJanMauritiusTotal Cases: 296,042Recent New/Day: 86JanJanJanMexicoTotal Cases: 7,483,444Recent New/Day: 3,369JanJanJanMoldovaTotal Cases: 611,140Recent New/Day: 527JanJanJanMontenegroTotal Cases: 288,808Recent New/Day: 55JanJanJanNetherlandsTotal Cases: 8,712,835Recent New/Day: 546JanJanJanNew ZealandTotal Cases: 2,236,114Recent New/Day: 1,636JanJanJanNorwayTotal Cases: 1,479,506Recent New/Day: 51JanJanJanPakistanTotal Cases: 1,577,411Recent New/Day: 48JanJanJanPanamaTotal Cases: 1,031,731Recent New/Day: 65JanJanJanPeruTotal Cases: 4,487,553Recent New/Day: 397JanJanJanPhilippinesTotal Cases: 4,077,452Recent New/Day: 126JanJanJanPolandTotal Cases: 6,444,960Recent New/Day: 2,780JanJanJanPortugalTotal Cases: 5,570,473Recent New/Day: 341JanJanJanQatarTotal Cases: 495,090Recent New/Day: 101JanJanJanRomaniaTotal Cases: 3,346,046Recent New/Day: 814JanJanJanRussiaTotal Cases: 22,075,858Recent New/Day: 12,535JanJanJanSaudi ArabiaTotal Cases: 830,127Recent New/Day: 71JanJanJanSerbiaTotal Cases: 2,500,142Recent New/Day: 823JanJanJanSingaporeTotal Cases: 2,235,294Recent New/Day: 632JanJanJanSlovakiaTotal Cases: 2,667,551Recent New/Day: 255JanJanJanSloveniaTotal Cases: 1,331,707Recent New/Day: 375JanJanJanSouth AfricaTotal Cases: 4,067,067Recent New/Day: 372JanJanJanSpainTotal Cases: 13,770,429Recent New/Day: 1,013JanJanJanSwedenTotal Cases: 2,699,339Recent New/Day: 114JanJanJanSwitzerlandTotal Cases: 4,413,911Recent New/Day: 210JanJanJanThailandTotal Cases: 4,728,182Recent New/Day: 21JanJanJanTrinidad and TobagoTotal Cases: 189,918Recent New/Day: 88JanJanJanTunisiaTotal Cases: 1,151,126Recent New/Day: 23JanJanJanUSTotal Cases: 103,802,702Recent New/Day: 30,972JanJanJanUkraineTotal Cases: 5,711,929Recent New/Day: 1,513JanJanJanU.A.E.Total Cases: 1,053,213Recent New/Day: 138JanJanJanUnited KingdomTotal Cases: 24,658,705Recent New/Day: 4,125JanJanJanUzbekistanTotal Cases: 251,247Recent New/Day: 25JanJanJanVenezuelaTotal Cases: 552,162Recent New/Day: 25
 

Countries that need to take action

 

Actions to win

 

Act Quickly

Don’t wait for “more data” or results from complicated models. It isn’t too late to start now. The earlier you act, the earlier things can go back to normal.

Isolate away from home

Set up facilities to isolate infected individuals from their family members. Roughly 80% of transmission in Wuhan was within the home.

Strict travel restrictions

If you are in a green zone with little to no community transmission, impose travel restrictions and reopen the local economy. For red zones, restrict outward travel to avoid infecting others. For essential travel, have mandatory quarantines to avoid spreading the virus.

 

Massive amount of testing

Testing allows you to identify infected individuals and separate them from the rest of the community.

clean air for everyone

Reducing transmission by having everyone wear a face mask is simple, cheap, and highly effective.

Improving ventilation of indoor spaces is also vital for reducing transmission.

Continue practicing social distancing

Stay away from crowded areas and keep as much distance between nearest neighbors as possible. Those with comorbidities (the elderly, overweight, immunocompromised, etc.) should be the last to be reintroduced into society, as they are the most vulnerable.

 

Be patient. Don’t reopen too early

Reopening too early runs the risk of triggering exponential growth again. This might erase all of the benefits gained from the lockdown so far. It could increase the total amount of deaths, overwhelm the medical system, and create a scenario where another lockdown is necessary.

Implement contact tracing

Hiring contact tracers and adopting digital contact tracing technologies will save lives, create jobs, and allow for an earlier return to normalcy.

 

Reminder: COVID-19 is airborne

Most transmission occurs through small respiratory droplets, called aerosols, that can build up in a room like cigarette smoke. Click below for simple hacks that can be used to clean your air.

Frequently asked questions

What are the classification criteria?

In order to completely contain the virus, new cases per day must go to zero. Green countries are either at that point or very close to it. Yellow countries are those which could reach that point within a reasonable time frame. They still have to get lower to be green. Red countries are either going the wrong way, staying constant, or going down very slowly. 

While some yellow curves might look similar to green curves, comparing the total numbers of new cases per day will often explain the differences in classification.

Why not show cases per capita?

Cases per capita is an important metric. However, when it comes to eliminating the virus, the number of new cases per day must be zero. The fraction of the population that is infected is not what matters. If a country has 100 new cases per day, that provides many routes for the virus to spread. It does not matter whether the population is 1,000,000 or 10,000,000.

 

Why are all of the peaks the same height?

These plots are adjusted for each country in order to better show the data. The vertical axis is plotted in arbitrary units, in order to easily compare the shapes of the curves. As you can see from the countries which have been successful in fighting COVID-19, it only takes about 5-7 weeks of strong interventions to get rid of the majority of cases. The data show that taking half-measures does not work.

Where is Country x?

This set of countries is certainly not an exhaustive list, but we do highlight the countries which we find to be interesting or important in some way. These lists will be changing over time, and are being updated every few days.

Isn’t much of the confirmed case data inaccurate? Why should I trust this?

While there is some amount of uncertainty in the actual numbers, we argue that those are likely irrelevant to the question of which actions need to be taken. Let’s assume the testing is done in a way in which you only catch 10% of the cases. This would simply scale down the curves by a factor of 10, which would not change the shape of the curves. If there is a sharp increase in the amount of testing vs time, one would expect to see more confirmed cases, even if the actual number of infections is going down. Taking a rolling 7-day average helps reduce the size of the features which show up on timescales of a few days.

 

Different countries have various amounts of testing. Aren’t large case counts just a result of large amounts of testing?

There are two main factors which influence the total amount of confirmed COVID-19 cases. The first is the total number of infections within the population, the second is the amount of testing being done. It is possible for highly infected regions to show a small number of confirmed cases if their testing is insufficient, which is why the positive testing rate is such an important factor.

Lockdowns hurt the economy, which in turn can cause many problems. Unemployment, psychological distress, and long-term economic harm need to be considered when deciding how to act.

This is absolutely true. There are more factors at play here than just the physical health of individuals and communities.

However, having economic interruptions which last for several weeks is a historically validated response strategy that is as old as history. A short, hard lockdown saves both the economy and the health of the population. If the lockdown is not doing the job very well, and new cases will not slow down, the strategy would be to strengthen the lockdown, rather than lift it.

The price a country pays for reopening too early can be incredibly high. Massive amounts of deaths, a collapsed healthcare system, and having multiple lockdowns would cause massive amounts of damage, and must be avoided.