April 30, 2021
by Joshua Farden

Canada has become an interesting case in the pandemic. Most of the country has selected the mitigation strategy. Our four easternmost provinces, on the other hand, have implemented an elimination policy akin to Australia and New Zealand.

Mitigation has worked itself into the broader public consciousness as the sober status quo, with tweaking and adjustments, implementation and re-implementation, the only variations within what is inferred as the only course of action. All while on the eastern coast, the strategy there has seen success granted to their population in every metric, except where national interaction is a factor, such as them essentially losing their tourism industry.

The mean medical fallout nationally has made other nations seem much worse in contrast, until now. Ontario, our wealthiest province, is now begging for medical aid from other provinces, and has even been offered help from Newfoundland, a province teetering on insolvency.

The all-in gamble on the vaccines has failed.

Our vaccine roll-out is sluggish and we're now a petri dish to see what happens if you toss all the new variants into one country. Combine those two facts with the present rate of transmission, and we likely won't see herd immunity and lessened cases anytime soon west of Edmundston and south of 60. There's also an unclear picture of vaccine efficacy with the variants, and as to what the mutations occurring now spell for the vaccine long-term.

The all-in gamble on the vaccines has failed. Ontario is now implementing measures akin to those seen in France thirteen months ago to counteract the calamity. Alberta, B.C., and Saskatchewan are trending toward a similar catastrophe. These are reactive acts of desperation resultant from dereliction.

How much longer can we push our healthcare system? It would appear that we have forgotten that it's comprised of human beings. Our health workers have been pushed to the brink. Also, what sort of negative externalities will we see from continually overloading it? It wasn't in the most robust shape before. We're yet to discover the full effect from further cramming ER's, and pushing back screenings, check-ups, treatments, and surgeries.

the canard of choosing between health and the economy has a large price tag. The two are intertwined.

The statistician Nassim Taleb noted that countries last year had a choice between spending pennies early on, or trillions later. Canada has seen the largest increase in overall debt-to-GDP during the pandemic. The massive amount of new government debt is worrisome; the spike in household debt is more alarming than that. The government has implemented spending not seen since the Second World War and there's been, at times, unemployment unseen since the depression. We won’t be able to be positioned for any post-pandemic economic boom to counteract the damage if such outbreaks are permitted to perpetuate.

The lack of growth is stark, and how much longer can we keep stimulus going until we have an inevitable future of choosing between inflation, austerity, or default? How many more months of mass spending and debt will there be if we simply cross our fingers? How many more small businesses need to close, and how much more supply chain disruption must there be? Whether it be minimal action or mitigation, the canard of choosing between health and the economy has a large price tag. The two are intertwined.

As seen with our ignored Atlantic provinces, the way forward is clear. We can end the deaths; new cases of long-covid; the over a year long impediment on civil liberties; and the vast debt funnel. Strong testing, tracing, and isolation, combined with a lockdown focused on a swift elimination, not merely “flattening the curve”. With most of the provincial borders now already closed, the last ones must be shut to assist containment.

As per the direction of the wind in Ottawa, an election appears to be on the horizon. The Prime Minister will likely not implement the Emergencies Act so close to an election, and have superseding provincial powers as a debate topic. If that is the case, he must still do more to aid, and to coordinate with, all the provinces.

With present risks, we don't know the outcomes going forward. There are plenty of possibilities as to what things will be like in a month, or in twenty, with our due course. Should we get it under control, or see how far we can go up the proverbial creek? Take your pick.